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Why We’re Cautious Near Term and Constructive Longer Term. The Key Is Rates.

November 3, 2023
Read time: 16 minutes As we near year-end, we are cautious about S&P 500 returns in the near...
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U.S. Macro Economy Growing, Albeit Slowly

November 3, 2023
Read time: 9 minutes On Nov. 1, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first report concerning...
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Stock Market or Market of Stocks?

October 6, 2023
Read time: 10 minutes Over my 40+ years of being involved in the business of professional investment practice,...
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Expected Recession Is Tardy—What Gives?

October 6, 2023
Read time: 10 minutes “The four most expensive words in the English language are, ‘This time it’s different.’”...
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It’s A Mad, Mad World… So Mad That We Are Still Outrageously Neutral

It’s A Mad, Mad World… So Mad That We Are Still Outrageously Neutral

September 14, 2023
“It would be so nice if something made sense for a change.” —Lewis Carroll, “Alice in Wonderland” August...
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The Economic Impact of Rising Mortgage Rates

The Economic Impact of Rising Mortgage Rates

September 14, 2023
In April 2022, I provided an analysis of home purchase costs in relation to median national household income. In...
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July Was Another Winner for the Markets… Time for a Breather?

July Was Another Winner for the Markets… Time for a Breather?

August 10, 2023
“Things turn out best for the people who make the best of the way things turn out.” – John...
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The Anticipated Recession Is Tardy But Not Canceled

The Anticipated Recession Is Tardy But Not Canceled

August 10, 2023
I have been highlighting my thoughts that the U.S. (and the global) economy stands a much higher probability of...
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Outstanding First Half. Do We See a Market Upswing or a Fade During the Rest of 2023?

Outstanding First Half. Do We See a Market Upswing or a Fade During the Rest of 2023?

July 13, 2023
“Extraordinary magic follows you around and the camera can’t catch it, you won’t see it in the...
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What Are the Long-Term Drivers of Economic Activity?

What Are the Long-Term Drivers of Economic Activity?

July 13, 2023
Most of my—and others’—economic comments tend to focus upon the cyclical, or shorter-term, view. Where is the economy within...
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Market Review: Time to Look on the Bright Side?

Market Review: Time to Look on the Bright Side?

June 8, 2023
When you’re chewing on life’s gristle, don’t grumble, give a whistle and … always look on the bright side...
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Government Deficit – We Have Met the Enemy, and He Is Us

Government Deficit – We Have Met the Enemy, and He Is Us

June 7, 2023
While the government narrowly missed defaulting on its debt obligations, some have asked, “What would the impact be if...
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