All Commentary Video Article Podcast Whitepaper

Insights

A Merry May on the Heels of an Awful April. The Merits of Staying Measured.

June 7, 2024
“It’s the economy, stupid!” —Slogan coined by James Carville, well-known campaign strategist, and former President Bill Clinton during...
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Midyear Update: Worker Productivity and Labor Force Expansion

June 3, 2024
With this month’s commentary, I return to the economy. Growth is continuing, but the growth rate is slowing. The...
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Private Credit Markets – A Growing Force

May 6, 2024
In the 1980s Michael Milken and Drexel Burnham effectively created a new debt market: the “high-yield” market was born....
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An April Air Pocket – No Fun, But Normal and Perhaps Even Healthy

May 6, 2024
“ Some things are believed because they are demonstrably true. But many other things are believed simply because they...
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From Santa to the Easter Bunny: Rally Momentum or Melt-Up Zone Ahead?

April 4, 2024
Read time: 14 minutes “Sell in May and Go Away.” — An old investment adage with roots...
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The Big Picture Final Chapter: Worker Productivity

April 4, 2024
Read time: 9 minutes Over the last year, I have written about my longer-term vision of economic and...
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Looking for a Melt-Up, a Meltdown, or Just a Solid Year? We Like Door No. 3!

March 6, 2024
Read time: 16 minutes “We’re runnin’ outta time So, tonight we’re gonna party like it’s 1999.” –...
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The Big Picture: GDP Growth and Productivity

March 5, 2024
Read time: 12 minutes Over the last 12 months, I have been writing about my longer-term vision of...
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Can the 2023 “Goldilocks” Economy Continue in 2024?

February 5, 2024
Read time: 6 minutes The numbers are in—no more guessing about growth levels or inflation rates for 2023....
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Solid Results and Finish to 2023. Back to Normal Is Our Theme for 2024.

January 4, 2024
Read time: 10 minutes Our theme for the equity market as we approached 2023 was: 2023 is likely...
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Soft Landing Highly Probable Despite Above-Normal Recession Risk  

January 4, 2024
Read time: 12 minutes It’s that time of the year when it is appropriate to look forward to...
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Our 2024 View: Overall Economic Growth Is Slowing

December 14, 2023
Read time: 8 minutes For those who didn’t experience “The Tonight Show Starring Johnny Carson,” he used to...
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